Monday, March 2nd at 15:00 GMT
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Fed doesn't see any weakness in the US economy, and as per their last meeting, they believe that the US economy is in good shape. However, the US output shrunk in February and the Markit US composite index—which includes manufacturing and services—has dropped to its lowest level since 2013. The Fed must pay attention to this economic data weakness, as it has dropped in contraction territory.
But, the fact is that the Fed has limited ammunition to combat recession, should one occur. Thus, they are playing it carefully.
The bottom line is that until and unless the upcoming manufacturing number fall off the cliff, the Fed is likely to maintain their view of the economy.
How will the economic data drive the equities?
Tuesday, March 3rd at 03:30 GMT
RBA Rate Statement
Investors have been selling the Aussie currency against the dollar since 2018. According to the recent CFTC data, the net speculative positions are still on the short side and investors are going to monitor the stance of the RBA with respect to their monetary policy.
The bank is holding its interest rate at a record low level, the house-hold debts are sky-high, and companies are reluctant to invest. Given the dependency of the Australian economy on China, where economic growth is under a huge threat. Investors would like to know what measures the RBA is planning to use to fight any upcoming threats.
Will the RBA provide any dovish clues?
Thursday, March 5th all day
Oil prices have slumped since Feb 3 and investors believe that the largest economies of the world are most likely to face weaker economic growth. Investors are hoping that during the upcoming meeting, they finally get some good news, something which they have been waiting for a long time. Russia is expected to cave in, and if it does, it will result in less supply.
But the bigger question is how big that supply cut will be, and more importantly, if it would be ample? The reason is that we are not sure if the Coronavirus situation is changing from epidemic to pandemic, and if it does, then we would be looking at a very different situation.
Will the OPEC committee decide on supply cut?
Friday, March 6th at 13:30 GMT
The US NFP data is the mother of all economic numbers and it has the ability to influence the Fed's monetary policy more than any other economic number. The Fed officials have said in the recent days that there is no need for extra stimulus, and they feel confident that their current monetary policy is stable.
However, during the Fed minutes meetings, it was clear that the Fed sees Coronavirus as a serious situation. Now the question is if the weakness in the manufacturing sector would influence the jobs number as well. The four-week average of the jobless claims has fallen to 209K which is the lowest level since April.
Will the US NFP surprise investors?