Tuesday, February 11th at 09:30 GMT
UK GDP Prelim q/q
Following Brexit, Boris Johnson, the UK's Prime Minister, has shown in his first speech to the EU that he is not going to bend to their demand. Traders are concerned that if we the prime minister continues with this stance, it is likely that the UK and the EU will have no deal before their defined deadline. This suggests that the UK will need to comply with the WTO trade rules—meaning pay tariff.
Tariffs mean additional burden; consumers will be worse-off, and this will influence the GDP data.
Boris Johnson should be playing his cards very prudently, and one way of doing this is to keep a close tap on the economic numbers. Strong economic numbers provide him leverage, but if the numbers continue to deteriorate, he must not adopt hard Brexit stance—meaning a continues threat of walking away from negotiations.
How will the economic data drive the Sterling?
Wednesday, 12th at 01:00 GMT
RBNZ Rate Statement
The RBNZ is likely to follow the path of RBA, keeping the gun powder dry. The Royal Bank of New Zealand is pretty much done with cutting interest rate, and now, the bank is likely to stay put.
Market participants have largely priced in no reaction from the central bank, and they are also anticipating a more balanced statement as the unemployment rate in the country is on the downward trajectory. Wages are also accelerating, and this suggests inflationary pressure building up in the labour market.
As long as the employment growth continues to rise, consumer confidence supports consumer spending; wage growth supports inflation, there is a little to no reason for the bank to move its muscle with respect to its monetary policy.
Moreover, we have also seen stability in the house price index; it is growing at a much faster pace now- thanks to low-interest rate. Housing price index shows that the country's largest city, Auckland rose 0.2% from December number.
What will happen to the Kiwi if the RBNZ cuts the interest rate?
Friday, February 14th at 13:30 GMT
US Core Retail Sales
After the US NFP data, and a slew of other important numbers—which have impacted the dollar index's volatility—traders are going to draw their opinion of the US economy by monitoring the US core retail data. Generally speaking, it is consumers who have shown a strong resilience against all the odds, but the on-going viral situation could derail matters.
Coronavirus is the wild card here when it comes to the noise in the data. Retail sales are likely to see some effect of this as the production over in China has been impacted. There is also a probability that consumer have not shopped much because of the on-going viral situation.
If the US core retail number echoes the same message as in the previous week's economic number, then it is likely that the current trend for the dollar index and the equity markets continue.
Will the US Core retail sales data set a new tone for the equity markets?