Wednesday, January 15th at 15:30 GMT
Crude Oil Inventories
In recent weeks, both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported large draws in crude oil inventories. Oil trading, however, has been affected by geopolitical tensions since the US airstrikes in Iraq that killed the Iranian military general Qassem Soleimani. This is widely seen as an upside risk for oil, as foreign oil companies may need to evacuate Iraq and/or Iran and Middle Eastern oil production may be negatively affected.
Oil traders will focus on this week’s Crude Oil Inventories data, whilst keeping an eye on the ever-developing geopolitical situation, which may lead to increased volatility for the commodity.
Will inventories data further support oil prices? Or will they cause a selloff?
Thursday, January 16th at 12:30 GMT
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
The new ECB President Christine Lagarde is widely renowned globally, but the markets remain mostly unwary of her take on monetary policy. Whilst the Press Conference that followed December’s ECB meeting gave some hints; traders will be focusing on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts to understand the position of the ECB Governing Council and of its new leader after inflation in the Eurozone recently hit a 6-month high of 1.3%.
Some analysts see this as a failure of her predecessor in meeting the 2% target over the past eight years, so it may prompt the Central Bank to launch a strategic review of its policies, with several proposals already being put forward.
Will the minutes reassure traders? Or will they weigh on the Euro?
Friday, January 17th at 02:00 GMT
This week, traders will focus on China, starting from the highly anticipated official signing of the phase one of the trade deal between the US and China expected to take place on January 15th in Washington, with Chinese officials starting to travel on January 13th.
By Friday, traders will have had time to react to the signing (or any negative news relating to the event) and will turn their attention to the official GDP data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
After meeting the lower end of the government’s GDP growth target of 6-6.5% for 2019, analysts have set a lower target of around 6% for 2020, continuing China’s trend of slowing economic growth.
GDP data are published quarterly and measure the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
In October, China’s GDP fell short of expectations (6.0% vs 6.1%), down from 6.2% in July. For this quarter, the consensus anticipates a reading of 6.0%, in line with the official target.
Will traders cheer data from China? Or will they express their disappointment?